Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) was released in cinemas a few weeks ago, to a very weak box office. It accumulated $33 million in the US in its opening; the kind of numbers you expect from a mid-budget, well received film rather than a tentpole superhero film. And whilst Birds of Prey may have a much smaller budget than most others in the genre, it was undoubtedly a dismaying figure for the Warner Bros. executives. It raises that controversial topic whether superhero and comic book movies are in decline or if there is 'supehero fatigue'.
Perhaps I am writing this prematurely, because the critical and commercial success of superhero films this year will be the deciding answer. The 2010s will go down as THE decade for comic book films. Whilst the 00s laid the groundwork for special effects, storytelling and tone, the last ten years cranked it all up. Audiences witnessed shared universes, characters referencing other characters, superhero films in the guise of heist, spy and comedy films and admittedly it was satisfying to see a lot of these elements come together well. 2019 saw Avengers: Endgame smash its way to becoming the highest grossing film of all time, ending eleven years of storytelling and pay off with a fan-friendly epic. It waved goodbye to two of the decades most quintessential characters (Iron Man and Captain America) and effectively left a clean slate. The last MCU film released was Spider-man: Far From Home in July 2019. It cracked a billion worldwide with ease and was largely well reviewed. But the marketing of that film labelled it as an epilogue; a final chapter in the story that had to be seen. It was clever marketing on Marvel's part and in many ways it did close the Tony Stark arc. The next Marvel picture is Black Widow in May. It is hard to predict how well this film will do because it suffers from a basic problem: the story is set before Infinity War and Endgame and the lead character was last seen dead in the latter film. It begs the question: what is the point of seeing this film? If it was worthwhile to the character and overall story one would have thought that Kevin Feige would have cranked this one out sooner rather then delaying it so that it now feels like an apology for all the fans who demanded Black Widow's own film since the first Avengers. There is an online apathy towards it; a sort of 'I will catch it on Blu-ray / Disney +' due to the fact it cannot exactly be spoiled. I would be surprised if it broke past $800 million worldwide.
The second Marvel film of the year is The Eternals in November. There is no trailer for it as yet and it is an unknown property so it is impossible to comment on it other than to the general audience, there is no awareness of it. This will be the interesting one; the first MCU film set properly after Endgame (Spider-man was directly affected by that movie's events). It raises the question of where the film series will head next: what the new goal is. Because this is where the franchise could struggle; the Infinity Saga had clear momentum and direction with nearly all the films being billed as important to the overarching threads. Not having this could cause the MCU to collapse with audiences only going to see the characters they are familiar with. In an age where getting people to go to the cinema is proving increasingly hard, Feige and co need a strategy. And with nothing big to lead up to, the ticket buyers will just be asking 'what is the point then?' With The Eternals it is even more impossible to gage how well it will do: will it break out through word of mouth like Guardians of the Galaxy? Or will it have big Civil War level drop offs?
If we move away from the MCU and focus on the other big superhero pictures of the year, then the argument that superhero cinema is declining continues to be more apparent. The DCEU launches its hopes with Wonder Woman 1984 in June. The delayed sequel to the very successful 2017 hit is looking like one of the summer's biggest hits, by default of it being a weak looking year. The first one received a big boost from the media making it out as a socially groundbreaking film due to its female lead. It also benefited from its lack of connections to other superhero films, operating firmly as its own story. It crossed $800 million worldwide with half of that from America. Anticipation seems reasonably high; the trailer was well received and the character is always the strongest part of each film she has starred in. But again, where is it leading? The DCEU established a universe where the characters all met up, but now is doing its best to undo that and focus on solo stories. And whilst Wonder Woman and Aquaman proved wildly successful, you have to ask how long can they go on for until they have to start pairing the characters up again.
Then there is the X-Men. 20th Century Fox launched X-men in 2000 and the series has largely stayed alive for twenty years, even if the majority are pretty weak films. The high point for the main series was the deftly handled Days of Future Past (2014) and then 2017's Logan earned its place at the top end of most loved superhero films. It was an emotional sendoff to an iconic character that remained grounded, heartfelt and earned. But then came along Deadpool with the R rating, universal audience acclaim and satirical tone. It kept Fox's X-men films alive by taking the piss out of them. But now that seems under threat due to Disney's acquisition of Fox. The chances of another R rated Deadpool film seem slim, and the thought of adding Ryan Reynolds to a PG-13 Marvel superhero film is akin to putting John Wick in a Pixar film: you lose what is great. Last year saw Dark Phoenix become a catastrophic bomb, ending the series on an abysmal note. In April we are at long last treated to The New Mutants, a film that I think I saw a trailer for back in October 2017. This is not going to make much money and it will either be good or awful. So I think it is fair to say that the X-Men brand is dead. The Gambit film will never happen and maybe X-Force might not happen. A franchise that endured for twenty years has been lost.
A fourth studio/series is Sony. Sony has two films this year: Morbius with Jared Leto and Venom 2. The weak trailer and lack of interest in the character of Morbius points to disappointing box office receipts already (as well as the post-Joker dislike towards Jared Leto). Venom 2 I do think could work. If they focus on an R rating and fix the problems the first film had then they could be onto something. Woody Harrelson is Carnage and Andy Serkis is directing so there is room for much improvement. But where is this new series leading to? A Tom Holland Spidey vs Tom Hardy Venom would be pretty cool to witness but there is no sign as to what Sony is scheming.
Ultimately it may come down to a weak year for tentpole superhero films and 2021 (with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Doctor Strange 2, Spider-man 3, The Suicide Squad, Thor 3 and THE BATMAN all coming out) may perhaps be a better year to reflect on due to the bigger brands being released. My hope is on The Batman.
But on the flip side, if the box office of superhero films take a hit this year, and if the more ambitious and original projects like Tenet, Dune, The French Dispatch and Soul do really well, we could be treated to more original movies again. So maybe the likes of Marvel and DC should quit whilst they are ahead (well Marvel anyway).
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