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| Avatar 2 |
2022 is shaping up to be another stacked year, with delayed films vying for competitive release dates. This is the year where Batman, Hogwarts, Dr Strange, Wakanda, Thor, Tom Cruise (twice), dinosaurs and John Wick all offer up their latest instalments. In fact, at least ten films are connected to billion dollar grossing IPs. As the year begins, the critical darlings are obscured from vision until the autumn so this list of anticipated films is purely based off franchises and blockbusters.
10. Thirteen Lives
The Tham Leung cave rescue in 2018 was a spectacular end to a rather tense news story, one that prompted me to immediately say "this will make a great film." It was with immense delight to then discover it is being made into a film, directed by Ron Howard. When given true stories, such as A Beautiful Mind, Apollo 13 and Rush, Howard always proves a reliable director. Mixing in Viggo Mortenson, Colin Farrell and Joel Edgerton as three of the divers and this seems like a brilliant watch waiting in the wings.
9. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Following on from his vital role in the smash-hit Spider-man: No Way Home, Benedict Cumberbatch is back (the man never stops) as the Sorcerer Supreme in another event-level Marvel film. Bringing in Elizabeth Olson's Wanda, who shot to new levels of popularity after her own TV show last year, and rumoured to also star Tom Hiddlestone's Loki, the scope of the MCU will be pushed into new frontiers as the multiverse fully opens. Doctor Strange was great in Infinity War, and, thanks to the trailer being the post-credit scene for No Way Home, this feels like a companion piece film that should offer even more surprises.
8. Bullet Train
Little is known of Bullet Train so far- no trailer, poster or industry hype. But with David Leitch attached as director (John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2) and Antoine Fuqua producing, we can expect terrific action. Brad Pitt leads a nifty little cast of assassins who find themselves on a bullet train with connected assignments. It's the type of action film I have been wanting for a while, boasting a reliable $85 million budget.
7. Thor: Love and Thunder
Taika Waititi returns to the MCU for his follow-up to Thor: Ragnarok and Avengers: Endgame. The results should be bright, colourful and funny, with outlandish action. Where some concerns lie is the inclusion of the Guardians of the Galaxy, the return of Natalie Portman's flaccid Jane and Christian Bale as the film's villain which will be... different. There are a lot of elements to juggle, but if pulled off correctly this could be a mighty epic.
6. Lightyear
Initially I was annoyed that Pixar have returned to sequels after having said they were focusing on originals, but then the film's trailer came out and revealed something I didn't expect- a film about the astronaut who would inspire the Buzz Lightyear toy in Andy and Bonnie's universe. I can get behind a crazy idea like that, and in fairness to Pixar, Onward, Luca, Soul and Turning Red more than counter-programs their output of sequels in the late 2010s. Chris Evans is a terrific choice for the astronaut and it looks like a visually satisfying sci-fi extravaganza.And the Bowie music? Spot on.
5. Jurassic World: Dominion
If Jurassic World was a seismic, record-breaking summer blockbuster champion, that arguably jump-started the nostalgia-centric Hollywood marketplace, then its sequel, Fallen Kingdom, was a similarly massive but uneven film that set-up an intriguing premise for the third and final film: what if the dinosaurs were now loose in our world and could roam freely? Colin Trevorrow returns to helm this conclusion, one that is bringing back the original film's iconic trio of Jeff Goldblum, Sam Neil and Laura Dern. Whilst Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard's characters are far from being memorable, the dino action and promise of a franchise sendoff should be worth a trip to the cinema.
4. The Batman
The Batman is shaping up to join The Dark Knight trilogy, Logan and Joker as one of the mainstream superhero films that satisfies fans, pleases critics and has genuine, director-driven artistic value that should make it a classic of the genre. The ingredients are there: Matt Reeves is directing (the man who made the supremely elegant Dawn of / War for the Planet of the Apes), Greig Fraser is the cinematographer (Rogue One, Dune), it features a young Batman (played by Robert Pattinson) engaging in a more detective style narrative, and it has a worthy of bench of DC characters: Alfred, Jim Gordon, Riddler, Penguin and Catwoman. The trailers are phenomenal and it looks like art.
3. Top Gun: Maverick
The trailers for this 35 year sequel have been circulating online and in cinemas for ages. Delayed by two years due to COVID (and definitely Tom Cruise's desire for older demographics to go to the cinema safely for this), the summer release for 2022 looks fixed. But what trailers they are! Everytime they air in a cinema you get a taste of that rippling sound design, a feel for the authentic dogfighting sequences and a sheer adrenaline rush from hearing the theme song. Tom Cruise always delivers on practical spectacle and director Joseph Kosinski evidently has an eye for visuals following his work on Oblivion. Here's hoping this will be more like Blade Runner 2049 than Dumb and Dumber To.
2. Mission: Impossible 7
2018's Mission Impossible: Fallout is a belter of an action film. Its set pieces increase in mayhem, jaw-dropping stunts and evisceral choreography. How on earth can Tom Cruise and Christopher McQuarrie top the stunts and spectacle? So far, things are pointing towards success. Footage of an enormous motorbike / parachute jump, a Buster Keaton-inspired train sequence and crash and an enormous bridge explosion look set to thrill audiences when this delayed film also releases this September. New cast additions Hayley Atwell (currently Cruise's lady), Nicholas Hoult and Rob Delaney number among a wealth of new faces and crew. Once again, in Cruise we trust.
1. Avatar 2
Never, ever, bet against James Cameron. Already the master of delivering superb sequels may years after their predecessors (T2, Aliens), Cameron's long gestating project will prove the naysayers wrong again. The man got Titanic to $1.8 billion in its theatrical run, despite no film even clearing a billion before, let alone almost two. He opened Avatar to a 'small' $77 million in the US in 2009 but it finished with over $700 million and an enormous $2.8 billion worldwide- again, becoming the first film to hit the big two B and nearly hit three B. Avatar 2 may not hit those heights as it has greater competition but the visual effects and filmmaking is already astonishing with the underwater motion-capture in particular being a cause for massive interest. Regardless of the characters and story, Avatar is an audio-visual escape to a bright new planet that audiences will again become addicted to. This will be a technical triumph.
Long-term box office predictions (based entirely off the world being pandemic-proof by April and most of these getting releases in China)
1. Avatar 2 - Opening Weekend: $145 million / Total Domestic: $530 million / Total Worldwide: $1.7 billion
Avatar got to $2.7 billion in 2009 through word of mouth, 3D pricing, visual innovations and being a completely original and accessible world. This sequel may be late, but similar CG breakthroughs and a curiosity to see where the story goes next will get people in seats. It won't be frontloaded but should perform immensely well overseas again.
2. Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness - Opening Weekend: $150 million / Total Domestic: $450 million / Total Worldwide: $1.2 billion
In the same way that Captain Marvel and Spider-man: Far From Home both hit $1.1 billion grosses from their proximity to Infinity War and Endgame, Doctor Strange 2 should get a very sizeable bump from its connection to the record-breaking Spider-man: No Way Home. Throw in Scarlett Witch and potential involvement from Loki, and you have a certified crowd-pleaser. The multiverse is an exciting, if already boring, premise that could also see some surprise cameos. The early May release date gives Sam Raimi's film a guaranteed strong opening.
3. Jurassic World: Dominion - Opening Weekend: $140 million / Total Domestic: $380 million / Total Worldwide: $1.2 billion
Jurassic World blindsided the world with its highest grossing weekend of all time in June 2015, going onto become the third biggest film ever. Its sequel took an expected hit but accumulated $1.3 billion worldwide despite mixed reviews. Dominion should still get flocks of people because a) dinosaurs sell, b) it reunites Sam Neill, Laura Dern and Jeff Goldblum and c) it has a fascinating premise that was set-up by the last film wherein dinousars are loose and living in our world. With Colin Trevorrow back to direct, it should be a liked film.
4. Thor: Love and Thunder - Opening Weekend: $130 million / Total Domestic: $350 million / Total Worldwide: $1.05 billion
Thor's popularity skyrocketed with Thor: Ragnarok and then again in Infinity War. This factor alone should see it exceed Taika Watiti's last outing with the character, which grossed $850 million. Throw in support from Christian Bale, the Guardians of the Galaxy and a prime summer release and a billion should be in the bag.
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Opening Weekend: $170 million / Total Domestic: $550 million / Total Worldwide: $1 billion
With no trailers or real confirmation on how Chadwick Boseman's death has been handled for this sequel, the success of this film seems a mystery. Will audiences still flock to see it out of respect for Boseman (like they did for Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight or Paul Walker in Furious 7) or will the actual absence of Boseman diminish its prospects as audiences will be less interested in it? Black Panther made an eye-watering $700 million in the US alone in 2018, and $1.3 billion worldwide. This proved that the character doesn't exactly need international markets to be successful, so expect a larger domestic total.
6. Lightyear - Opening Weekend: $120 million / Total Domestic: $400 million / Total Worldwide: $950 million
Lightyear's trailer was surprisingly well received. Chris Evans voicing the astronaut that Buzz Lightyear is based on is a smooth casting decision and, considering that the Toy Story films are still relevant (3 and 4 both grossed over a billion dollars despite lengthy gaps between installments), this film has the potential to go the distance... and beyond. It's flashy science-fiction and that is often popular with families who want a fun 90 minute adventure film. It could be Pixar's first big cinematic hit since Toy Story 4.
7. Minions: The Rise of Gru - Opening Weekend: $100 million / Total Domestic: $280 million / Total Worldwide: $900 million
Illumination's Despicable Me franchise is an enormous money maker: the second film made $970 million and the third sailed past a billion. The spin-off film, Minions, took in $1.1 billion on a very low (for an animated film) budget. That was seven years ago (!) but because of how easy it is to take kids to watch these yellow creatures (who are also a big draw in non-English markets due to their own unintelligable language) then it would not be surprising to see families with young children turn up in force to watch Minions 2.
7. Aquaman 2 - Opening Weekend: $85 million / Total Domestic: $240 million / Total Worldwide: $880 million
2018's Aquaman surprised everyone when it went onto becoming the highest grossing DC film of all time with $1.1 billion. It's success can be sourced from several reasons but the biggest factor is its over-performance in China where the underwater action-adventure was lapped up. It also had the luxury of the very economical mid-December release date, the same slot that made The Hobbit and Star Wars films massive moneymakers. Bumblebee and Mary Poppins Returns proved weak competition and so Aquaman legged it to a decent domestic total. Very few would name it as one of their favourite superhero films so its box office performance will be fascinating as it releases the same date as the similarly underwater-based Avatar 2. It may balk and shift its release a week earlier or later, but it seems very likely it will have as big a cume as before. Plus, many still don't like Amber Heard.
8. Black Adam - Opening Weekend: $100 million / Total Domestic: $250 million / Total Worldwide: $800 million
Dwayne Johnson has been attached to this DC character for many years now. How well known Black Adam is is unsure, but there is no denying The Rock's fame. With a vast amount of social media power and general audiences seemingly liking his presence, Dwayne Johnson could probably market this film alone and it would be a hit. It could go either way: it may be too niche a comic character or it could be a bad film, or it could be really likeable and draws general audiences who want a film that isn't connected to anything else.
9. The Batman - Opening Weekend: $125 million / Total Domestic: $320 million / Total Worldwide: $700 million worldwide
Matt Reeves' The Batman is the definition of a film for Film Twitter (see also Dune and The Matrix Resurrections). There is a great deal of anticipation for the film, which looks like a unique take on Bruce Wayne fuelled by solid casting choices and a seemingly detective-inspired narrative that puts it more on the street level. Whether this anticipation is a vocal minority is unclear (as always with Twitter) but Batman is a box office magnet, particularly in the US. It may be too dark and gritty for younger audiences but if the film is as good as it looks, the rewatch factor by fans could give it a boost. Plus, its March release date gives it plenty of playing time.
10. Mission Impossible 7 - Opening Weekend: $65 million / Total Domestic: $220 million / Total Worldwide: $735 million
Having been delayed numerous times due to its production troubles in the pandemic, Mission 7 looks confident with its leisurely September release date. Fallout, the last one of the series, was extremely close to crossing $800 million worldwide, a figure driven by very strong reviews and a 'must see to believe' word of mouth. Director Chris McQuarrie is back and a trailer would be great to show what insane stunts are going to be in this one. It seems unfathomable that Cruise could outdo what he accomplished in Fallout, so a slightly lower gross seems assured.
11. Turning Red - Opening Weekend: $75 million / Total Domestic: $240 million / Total Worldwide: $700 million
Pixar's first cinematic release since Onward was flanked by lockdowns, Turning Red is another original with a Spring release. It won't achieve the robust numbers of Inside Out, Coco or any of the recent sequels, but an optimistic guess based on it getting good reviews sees it marking the $700 million number.
12. The Flash - Opening Weekend: $80 million / Total Domestic: $200 million / Total Worldwide: $650 million
The Flash will either be a reasonable hit or an enormous flop. Ezra Miller's character was a lot stronger in Zack Snyder's Justice League than in the first Justice League, but how many non-DC fans actually watched it? The film is also one of three (at least) 'multiverse' films in 2022, a notion that may seem overdone by the time The Flash comes out. Its USP is that Michael Keaton and Ben Affleck will be returning as Bruce Wayne / Batman but is this a draw? Batfleck is hardly a fan favourite and Keaton's Batman was never the best aspect of the Tim Burton films, nor do they have nostalgic weight among modern audiences. Even if the film brought in Val Kilmer, George Clooney and Christian Bale it still wouldn't perform that greatly as all these iterations are so at odds with each other. There may be intrigue, but only from the fans.
13. Top Gun: Maverick - Opening Weekend: $70 million / Total Domestic: $200 million / Total Worldwide: $650 million
The other much delayed Tom Cruise action project is the long awaited sequel Top Gun: Maverick. A quintessential product of the 1980s, Top Gun holds a special place among the hearts of most dads. Long gaps between sequels can work (Blade Runner 2049) and Cruise seems to have a decent choice of director and writers on board, not to mention Miles Tellar and Ed Harris. The trailers have been circulating for years now, and even people who haven't seen the original are impressed with what is shown: experly crafted dogfighting sequences and a charismatic Cruise performance. If it is made with love and respect, it will get all of the older demographics out as well as new fans.
14. Spider-man: Across the Spiderverse Part I - Opening Weekend: $60 million / Total Domestic: $180 million / Total Worldwide: $470 million
There are very films on this box office list that seemingly deserve the big bucks they will earn, but this sequel to Into the Spiderverse looks like it deserves to make a tonne more than it probably will. The first film shocked everyone with its stunning, innovative animation, multi-verse narrative and total originality as a superhero film. It won the Animated Oscar and fans have been clamouring for a sequel since. The large following the film receieved will undoubtedly turn up for this sequel, whilst the post-No Way Home Spidermania should help, too.
15. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore - Opening Weekend: $55 million / Total Domestic: $120 million / Total Worldwide: $400 million
Another fine example of whether Twitter mobs actually represent general audience views, Fantastic Beasts has had its fair share of controversies thanks to JK Rowling, Johnny Depp and Ezra Miller. Rowling and Miller remain, but Depp is gone to the outcry of many defenders. How much of an impact this will have might never known, as the other factor to consider is that 2018's The Crimes of Grindelwald was a total stinker that irked fans and messed with established lore. The film took a notable dip to $650 million worldwide and considering the unexciting trailers for this sequel, it looks a guarantee that this will be the lowest grossing Wizarding World film. The cheap nostalgia baiting of Hogwarts is a weak attempt to get fans back too.
16. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - Opening Weekend: $45 million / Total Domestic: $135 million / Total Worldwide: $400 million
This should be a neat little earner as Sonic the Hedgehog was an effective family film that benefited from the whole trailer backlash and the visual effect corrections the studio went to to please fans. Jim Carrey was great in the villain role and he returns here to join Idris Elba's Knuckles. Also in tow is Tails, rounding out the iconic Sonic characters. If it is entertaining as the first it should be box office safe.
17. Morbius - Opening Weekend: $45 million / Total Domestic: $140 million / Total Worldwide: $360 million
This is the only film that is truly unpredictable box office wise. Its January release gives it plenty of roaming time with little to stand against it, and Sony had a terrific 2021 thanks to Venom 2 and Spider-man: No Way Home both overperforming. The Venom films have proven 'critic-proof' but Jared Leto / Morbius is less of a drawer than Tom Hardy / Venom. Then there are the trailers which tease references to numerous of Sony's Spider-man films as well as Michael Keaton as Vulture from the MCU. Morbius is probably not going to change the world with its numbers, but Sony could pull another lucky dip.
18. Nope - Opening Weekend: $45 million / Total Domestic: $140 million / Total Worldwide: $340 million
Jordan Peele's third film finds him back with Daniel Kaluuya for another exciting original. Peele has established himself as a premier director known to many people, so that alone should give him a strong performance. Good reviews could enhance these numbers.
19. Bullet Train - Opening Weekend: $52 million / Total Domestic: $148 million / Total Worldwide: $330 million
An original action film with Brad Pitt headlining a decent ensemble of faces directed by the man behind Deadpool 2 and John Wick? Crowd-pleaser alert! Bullet Train has August pretty much to itself and so should draw out more adult audiences over the quiet month. Hopefully it really breaks out due to good reviews.
20. Halloween Ends - Opening Weekend: $65 million / Total Domestic: $120 million / Total Worldwide: $200 million
The previous two films all performed very well, largely form Halloween frontloading. If this follows in the same track then it will be open with a bang and end with a gentle fizzle.
